All in, our 1H17 net add ests are largely unchanged (8.35M vs. prior +8.18M). Net adds QTD suggest the outlook for 2Q could be conservative, though it’s also possible net adds were pulled forward.” Canaccord, Michael Graham (Buy, price target raised to $165 from $160) “Netflix reported solid Q1 results, with revenue in line with consensus as higher ASPs offset slightly light paid subscriber adds. Key show releases being pushed into Q2 is the likely cause of the subscriber miss, as new seasons of top shows historically have had larger impacts on net adds than new shows. With the valuation becoming fuller (NFLX is up ~19% vs. S&P up ~5% YTD), the trend in rising long-term profitability is important given the upfront cash spend on content. We realize it will likely take a substantial sub beat to move the stock in the short-term, but the release slate in Q2 and Netflix’ssuccess with originals give us reason enough to remain buyers of the stock.” Cantor Fitzgerald (Overweight, price target raised to $165 from $160) “We’re maintaining our Overweight rating on Netflix and raising our PT to $165 from $160, reflecting a stronger-than-expected 2Q subscriber outlook (+750K), partially offset by a slight miss in 1Q net adds (-230K) and virtually in-line financial results. Although quarterly net adds can be quite volatile, record 4Q net adds and the strong 2Q guide show healthy subscriber trends over longer periods, and a heavy slate of recurring originals should sustain growth for the rest of the year. We maintain our positive stance on the stock given 1) substantial long-term growth potential, particularly in international markets; 2) a strong secular tailwind as linear TV shifts to internet TV viewing; 3) the company’s leadership position with $6B+ of P&L content spend; and 4) the recent inflection/path to gradually higher operating/EBITDA margins.” Wedbush Securities, Michael Pachter (Underperform, price target raised to $73 from $68) “We continue to believe that Netflix cash burn is the driver of valuation, although largely overlooked by investors.
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